Levante UD vs Athletic Club prediction, odds and stats — 21 October 2026
La Liga WAT Matchday 6
Updated WAT
Athletic Club travel to face Levante UD in the La Liga, kicking off Wednesday 21 October at 19:00 WAT. Athletic's last 1: D; Levante's: D-D.
Our headline pick
Under 2.5 goals
- Probability
- 56%
- Fair odds
- 1.8
- Confidence
- Confidence: Medium
Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin.
Match result probabilities
LevanteDrawAthletic
Match analysis
League scoring rates: Levante 1.50/2.00, Athletic 1.00/0.86 (scored/conceded per game). Our model expects about 2.5 goals in total.
The selection our model rates most informative is Under 2.5 goals (56%); a price above 1.80 would beat our fair odds.
Our 56% is an estimate, not a promise; roughly 4 in 10 similar picks miss.
Markets
| Market | Probabilities | Our pick |
|---|---|---|
| Match result |
|
Athletic to win 37% · fair odds 2.73 Confidence: Low |
| Over/Under 0.5 goals |
|
over 92% · fair odds 1.08 Confidence: High |
| Over/Under 4.5 goals |
|
under 88% · fair odds 1.13 Confidence: High Tip |
| Double chance |
|
Levante or Athletic 71% · fair odds 1.42 Confidence: High |
| Over/Under 1.5 goals |
|
Over 1.5 goals 74% · fair odds 1.34 Confidence: High Tip |
| Over/Under 2.5 goals |
|
Under 2.5 goals 56% · fair odds 1.80 Confidence: Medium Tip |
| Over/Under 3.5 goals |
|
Under 3.5 goals 74% · fair odds 1.35 Confidence: High Tip |
| Both teams to score |
|
Both teams to score: Yes 53% · fair odds 1.88 Confidence: Medium |
| Correct score (top 3) |
|
|
Why the model leans this way, market by market
- Match result
- Our model rates Athletic Club to win at 37%. Expected goals: Levante UD 1.14 – 1.33 Athletic Club (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Athletic Club (1555 vs 1584). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 0.5 goals
- Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 92%. Expected goals: Levante UD 1.14 – 1.33 Athletic Club (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 4.5 goals
- Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 88%. Expected goals: Levante UD 1.14 – 1.33 Athletic Club (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Double chance
- Our model rates Levante UD or Athletic Club at 71%. Expected goals: Levante UD 1.14 – 1.33 Athletic Club (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Athletic Club (1555 vs 1584). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 1.5 goals
- Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 74%. Expected goals: Levante UD 1.14 – 1.33 Athletic Club (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Our model rates under 2.5 goals at 56%. Expected goals: Levante UD 1.14 – 1.33 Athletic Club (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Over/Under 3.5 goals
- Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 74%. Expected goals: Levante UD 1.14 – 1.33 Athletic Club (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
- Both teams to score
- Our model rates both teams scoring at 53%. Expected goals: Levante UD 1.14 – 1.33 Athletic Club (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our reasoning
Key stats
| Stat | Levante | Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th | 11th |
| Points (played) | 7 (8) | 9 (7) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.86 |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W0 D1 L0 | Away: W0 D1 L0 |
Probabilities come from our own model. How we calculated this.
Form (last five, newest first)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 |
|
9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 11 | |
| 10 |
|
9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 11 | |
| 11 |
|
7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 9 | |
| 12 |
|
9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9 | |
| 13 |
|
8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 9 | |
| 15 |
|
9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 8 | |
| 16 |
|
9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 8 | |
| 17 |
|
8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 7 | |
| 18 |
|
9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 | |
| 19 |
|
9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Levante vs Athletic head to head
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Frequently asked questions
What is our prediction for Levante UD vs Athletic Club?
Under 2.5 goals at 56% (fair odds 1.80). Match result: Levante 34%, draw 29%, Athletic 37%.
Will both teams score in Levante UD vs Athletic Club?
Our model puts both teams scoring at 53%, a clean sheet for either side at 47%.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Levante UD vs Athletic Club?
Three or more goals: 44%; two or fewer: 56%.
What time does Levante UD vs Athletic Club kick off?
Wednesday 21 October 2026 at 19:00 West Africa Time (WAT), which is 19:00 BST in the UK.
Where can I see the Levante UD vs Athletic Club result?
On this page, minutes after full time: the final score and how each of our 9 market predictions did.