Serie A WAT Matchday 7
Updated
Frosinone Calcio host US Sassuolo Calcio in the Serie A on Friday 16 October at 19:45 WAT. Frosinone sit 9th on 10 points after 6 games, while Sassuolo are 11th on 8, 2 points behind. Recent form (newest first): Frosinone lost 1 of the last 1, Sassuolo drew 1 of the last 1. Our model's headline view is Frosinone or draw at 72%. The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 3.2 goals in total.
Our headline pick
Frosinone or draw 72% · fair odds 1.39
Frosinone to win
46% probability Fair odds 2.16
Our model rates Frosinone Calcio to win at 46%. Expected goals: Frosinone Calcio 1.84 – 1.38 US Sassuolo Calcio (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings are close (1475 vs 1484). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Frosinone or Sassuolo
74% probability Fair odds 1.34
Our model rates Frosinone Calcio or US Sassuolo Calcio at 74%. Expected goals: Frosinone Calcio 1.84 – 1.38 US Sassuolo Calcio (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings are close (1475 vs 1484). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 1.5 goals
84% probability Fair odds 1.19
Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 84%. Expected goals: Frosinone Calcio 1.84 – 1.38 US Sassuolo Calcio (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 2.5 goals
62% probability Fair odds 1.61
Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 62%. Expected goals: Frosinone Calcio 1.84 – 1.38 US Sassuolo Calcio (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Under 3.5 goals
60% probability Fair odds 1.67
Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 60%. Expected goals: Frosinone Calcio 1.84 – 1.38 US Sassuolo Calcio (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Both teams to score: Yes
64% probability Fair odds 1.57
Our model rates both teams scoring at 64%. Expected goals: Frosinone Calcio 1.84 – 1.38 US Sassuolo Calcio (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our model's headline view on Frosinone vs Sassuolo is Frosinone or draw at an estimated 72%, which converts to fair odds of 1.39. Compare that with the price on offer before deciding anything.
| Stat | Frosinone | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 11th |
| Points (played) | 10 (6) | 8 (6) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.17 | 1.67 |
| Home / away record (recent) | – | – |
| Model win probability | 46% | 28% |
| Model expected total goals | 3.2 | match total |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 |
|
6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 | D |
| 8 |
|
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 10 | W |
| 9 |
|
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 | L |
| 10 |
|
6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 | W |
| 11 |
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | D |
| 12 |
|
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 | W |
| 13 |
|
6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 | L |
No previous meetings on record.
Frosinone vs Sassuolo head to head
Our model gives Frosinone Calcio a 46% chance to win, the draw 26% and US Sassuolo Calcio 28%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at 64%.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 62%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%.
Frosinone Calcio vs US Sassuolo Calcio kicks off on Friday 16 October 2026 at 19:45 West Africa Time (18:45 UTC).
