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Corinthians vs Vitória

SC Corinthians Paulista vs EC Vitória result, prediction review and stats — 20 October 2026

Brasileirão Série A Tue 20 Oct 2026 00:00 WAT Matchday 31

Updated 20 Oct 2026, 16:45 WAT

SC Corinthians Paulista host EC Vitória in the Brasileirão Série A on Tuesday 20 October at 00:00 WAT. On recent form Corinthians took 1 of 6 points and Vitória 1 of 6.

Corinthians

1 - 1 Full time (HT 0-1)

Vitória

Our headline pick

Over 1.5 goals

Probability: 75%
Fair odds: 1.33
Confidence: Confidence: High

Fair odds = 1 ÷ our probability. A price below it carries the bookmaker's margin. Won

Match result probabilities

CorinthiansDrawVitória

Match analysis

With 1.03 goals a game at one end and 1.47 conceded by Vitória at the other, Corinthians have a scoring benchmark to aim at. Our model expects about 2.5 goals in total.

Vitória have won 0 of 1 meetings with Corinthians, who have won 0.

Result & prediction review

SC Corinthians Paulista 1-1 EC Vitória. It was 0-1 at half-time. 7 of our 8 market predictions landed (Both teams to score: Yes, Corinthians or draw, over, Over 1.5 goals, Under 2.5 goals, Under 3.5 goals, under). The headline pick, Over 1.5 goals, was correct. The final score was our number 1 most likely scoreline.

How each prediction did

Our probabilities by market for Corinthians vs Vitória
Market	Probabilities	Our pick
Match result	Corinthians 44.3% Draw 28.5% Vitória 27.2%	Corinthians to win 44% · fair odds 2.26 Confidence: Low Lost
Over/Under 0.5 goals	over 92.6% under 7.4%	over 93% · fair odds 1.08 Confidence: High Won
Over/Under 4.5 goals	under 87.8% over 12.2%	under 88% · fair odds 1.14 Confidence: High Won
Double chance	1X 72.8% 12 71.5% X2 55.7%	Corinthians or draw 73% · fair odds 1.37 Confidence: High Won
Over/Under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 75.1% Under 1.5 24.9%	Over 1.5 goals 75% · fair odds 1.33 Confidence: High Won
Over/Under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 54.3% Over 2.5 45.7%	Under 2.5 goals 54% · fair odds 1.84 Confidence: Medium Won
Over/Under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 73.5% Over 3.5 26.5%	Under 3.5 goals 73% · fair odds 1.36 Confidence: High Won
Both teams to score	Yes 54.3% No 45.7%	Both teams to score: Yes 54% · fair odds 1.84 Confidence: Medium Won
Correct score (top 3)	1-1 13.7% Won 1-0 9.9% 0-0 9.0%

Why the model leans this way, market by market

Match result: Our model rates SC Corinthians Paulista to win at 44%. Expected goals: SC Corinthians Paulista 1.38 – 1.16 EC Vitória (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings are close (1501 vs 1488). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over/Under 0.5 goals: Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 93%. Expected goals: SC Corinthians Paulista 1.38 – 1.16 EC Vitória (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over/Under 4.5 goals: Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 88%. Expected goals: SC Corinthians Paulista 1.38 – 1.16 EC Vitória (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Double chance: Our model rates SC Corinthians Paulista or draw at 73%. Expected goals: SC Corinthians Paulista 1.38 – 1.16 EC Vitória (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings are close (1501 vs 1488). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over/Under 1.5 goals: Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 75%. Expected goals: SC Corinthians Paulista 1.38 – 1.16 EC Vitória (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over/Under 2.5 goals: Our model rates under 2.5 goals at 54%. Expected goals: SC Corinthians Paulista 1.38 – 1.16 EC Vitória (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over/Under 3.5 goals: Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 73%. Expected goals: SC Corinthians Paulista 1.38 – 1.16 EC Vitória (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Both teams to score: Our model rates both teams scoring at 54%. Expected goals: SC Corinthians Paulista 1.38 – 1.16 EC Vitória (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.

Key stats

Key stats for Corinthians vs Vitória
Stat	Corinthians	Vitória
League position	17th	14th
Points (played)	32 (30)	36 (30)
Goals scored per game	1.03	1.10
Goals conceded per game	1.27	1.47
Home / away record (recent)	Home: W0 D1 L0	Away: W0 D1 L1

Probabilities come from our own model. How we calculated this.

Form (last five, newest first)

Corinthians

Vitória

Brasileirão Série A table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
12	Coritiba	31	10	9	12	-11	39
13	Mirassol	31	9	9	13	-8	36
14	Vitória	30	10	6	14	-11	36
15	Vasco da Gama	30	9	8	13	-7	35
16	Internacional	31	7	11	13	-7	32
17	Corinthians	30	8	8	14	-7	32
18	Grêmio	31	7	10	14	-10	31
19	Clube do Remo	31	5	11	15	-15	26