La Liga WAT Matchday 9
Updated
Levante UD travel to face RC Deportivo La Coruña in the La Liga, kicking off Friday 16 October at 20:00 WAT. Deportivo sit 8th on 10 points after 8 games, while Levante are 17th on 6, 4 points behind. Recent form (newest first): Deportivo lost 1 of the last 1, Levante drew 1 of the last 1. The selection our model rates most informative here is Deportivo to win (55%). The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 4.3 goals in total.
Our headline pick
Deportivo to win 55% · fair odds 1.81
Deportivo to win
55% probability Fair odds 1.81
Our model rates RC Deportivo La Coruña to win at 55%. Expected goals: RC Deportivo La Coruña 2.71 – 1.50 Levante UD (most likely score 2-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings are close (1494 vs 1487). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models. Limited recent data for these teams lowers our confidence.
over
96% probability Fair odds 1.04
Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 96%. Expected goals: RC Deportivo La Coruña 2.71 – 1.50 Levante UD (most likely score 2-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models. Limited recent data for these teams lowers our confidence.
under
73% probability Fair odds 1.37
Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 73%. Expected goals: RC Deportivo La Coruña 2.71 – 1.50 Levante UD (most likely score 2-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models. Limited recent data for these teams lowers our confidence.
Deportivo or draw
79% probability Fair odds 1.26
Our model rates RC Deportivo La Coruña or draw at 79%. Expected goals: RC Deportivo La Coruña 2.71 – 1.50 Levante UD (most likely score 2-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings are close (1494 vs 1487). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models. Limited recent data for these teams lowers our confidence.
Over 1.5 goals
88% probability Fair odds 1.13
Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 88%. Expected goals: RC Deportivo La Coruña 2.71 – 1.50 Levante UD (most likely score 2-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models. Limited recent data for these teams lowers our confidence.
Over 2.5 goals
81% probability Fair odds 1.24
Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 81%. Expected goals: RC Deportivo La Coruña 2.71 – 1.50 Levante UD (most likely score 2-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models. Limited recent data for these teams lowers our confidence.
Under 3.5 goals
50% probability Fair odds 1.99
Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 50%. Expected goals: RC Deportivo La Coruña 2.71 – 1.50 Levante UD (most likely score 2-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models. Limited recent data for these teams lowers our confidence.
Both teams to score: Yes
64% probability Fair odds 1.57
Our model rates both teams scoring at 64%. Expected goals: RC Deportivo La Coruña 2.71 – 1.50 Levante UD (most likely score 2-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models. Limited recent data for these teams lowers our confidence.
Our model's headline view on Deportivo vs Levante is Deportivo to win at an estimated 55%, which converts to fair odds of 1.81. Compare that with the price on offer before deciding anything.
| Stat | Deportivo | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 17th |
| Points (played) | 10 (8) | 6 (7) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.50 | 1.57 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.38 | 2.14 |
| Home / away record (recent) | – | – |
| Model win probability | 55% | 21% |
| Model expected total goals | 4.3 | match total |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 |
|
8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 | W |
| 7 |
|
8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +4 | 11 | L |
| 8 |
|
8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 10 | L |
| 9 |
|
8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 8 | D |
| 10 |
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 | No recent games |
| 15 |
|
8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 | D |
| 16 |
|
8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 | L |
| 17 |
|
7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 | D |
| 18 |
|
8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 | D |
| 19 |
|
8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 | D |
No previous meetings on record.
Deportivo vs Levante head to head
Our model gives RC Deportivo La Coruña a 55% chance to win, the draw 24% and Levante UD 21%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at 64%.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 81%.
The most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 8%.
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs Levante UD kicks off on Friday 16 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time (19:00 UTC).
