Premier League WAT Matchday 7
Updated
Nottingham Forest FC host Arsenal FC in the Premier League on Sunday 18 October at 16:30 WAT. Nottingham sit 15th on 5 points after 6 games, while Arsenal are 2nd on 15, 10 points ahead. Recent form (newest first): Nottingham lost 1 of the last 1, Arsenal won 1 of the last 1. Our model's headline view is Draw or Arsenal at 81%. The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 2.4 goals in total.
Our headline pick
Draw or Arsenal 81% · fair odds 1.24
Arsenal to win
51% probability Fair odds 1.95
Our model rates Arsenal FC to win at 51%. Expected goals: Nottingham Forest FC 0.99 – 1.27 Arsenal FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Arsenal FC (1557 vs 1773). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
over
92% probability Fair odds 1.08
Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 92%. Expected goals: Nottingham Forest FC 0.99 – 1.27 Arsenal FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
under
90% probability Fair odds 1.11
Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 90%. Expected goals: Nottingham Forest FC 0.99 – 1.27 Arsenal FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Draw or Arsenal
81% probability Fair odds 1.24
Our model rates Arsenal FC or draw at 81%. Expected goals: Nottingham Forest FC 0.99 – 1.27 Arsenal FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Arsenal FC (1557 vs 1773). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 1.5 goals
72% probability Fair odds 1.39
Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 72%. Expected goals: Nottingham Forest FC 0.99 – 1.27 Arsenal FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Under 2.5 goals
58% probability Fair odds 1.73
Our model rates under 2.5 goals at 58%. Expected goals: Nottingham Forest FC 0.99 – 1.27 Arsenal FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Under 3.5 goals
76% probability Fair odds 1.31
Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 76%. Expected goals: Nottingham Forest FC 0.99 – 1.27 Arsenal FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Both teams to score: Yes
52% probability Fair odds 1.94
Our model rates both teams scoring at 52%. Expected goals: Nottingham Forest FC 0.99 – 1.27 Arsenal FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our model's headline view on Nottingham vs Arsenal is Draw or Arsenal at an estimated 81%, which converts to fair odds of 1.24. Compare that with the price on offer before deciding anything.
| Stat | Nottingham | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 2nd |
| Points (played) | 5 (6) | 15 (6) |
| Goals scored per game | 0.83 | 1.67 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.33 | 0.83 |
| Home / away record (recent) | – | – |
| Model win probability | 19% | 51% |
| Model expected total goals | 2.4 | match total |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +11 | 18 | W |
| 2 |
|
6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 15 | W |
| 3 |
|
6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +13 | 13 | W |
| 4 |
|
6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +6 | 10 | D |
| 13 |
|
6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | D |
| 14 |
|
6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 | W |
| 15 |
|
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 | L |
| 16 |
|
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 | D |
| 17 |
|
6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 | L |
No previous meetings on record.
Nottingham vs Arsenal head to head
Our model gives Nottingham Forest FC a 19% chance to win, the draw 30% and Arsenal FC 51%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at 52%.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 42%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%.
Nottingham Forest FC vs Arsenal FC kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 16:30 West Africa Time (15:30 UTC).