Eredivisie WAT Matchday 9
Updated
SBV Excelsior travel to face SC Heerenveen in the Eredivisie, kicking off Friday 16 October at 19:00 WAT. Heerenveen sit 10th on 9 points after 8 games, while Excelsior are 9th on 11, 2 points ahead. The selection our model rates most informative here is Heerenveen to win (50%). The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 3.5 goals in total.
Our headline pick
Heerenveen to win 50% · fair odds 2
Heerenveen to win
50% probability Fair odds 2.00
Our model rates SC Heerenveen to win at 50%. Expected goals: SC Heerenveen 1.99 – 1.55 SBV Excelsior (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour SC Heerenveen (1537 vs 1473). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Heerenveen or Excelsior
76% probability Fair odds 1.32
Our model rates SC Heerenveen or SBV Excelsior at 76%. Expected goals: SC Heerenveen 1.99 – 1.55 SBV Excelsior (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour SC Heerenveen (1537 vs 1473). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 1.5 goals
87% probability Fair odds 1.14
Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 87%. Expected goals: SC Heerenveen 1.99 – 1.55 SBV Excelsior (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 2.5 goals
69% probability Fair odds 1.46
Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 69%. Expected goals: SC Heerenveen 1.99 – 1.55 SBV Excelsior (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Under 3.5 goals
53% probability Fair odds 1.89
Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 53%. Expected goals: SC Heerenveen 1.99 – 1.55 SBV Excelsior (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Both teams to score: Yes
69% probability Fair odds 1.46
Our model rates both teams scoring at 69%. Expected goals: SC Heerenveen 1.99 – 1.55 SBV Excelsior (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our model's headline view on Heerenveen vs Excelsior is Heerenveen to win at an estimated 50%, which converts to fair odds of 2. Compare that with the price on offer before deciding anything.
| Stat | Heerenveen | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 9th |
| Points (played) | 9 (8) | 11 (8) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.38 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.38 | 1.75 |
| Home / away record (recent) | – | – |
| Model win probability | 50% | 26% |
| Model expected total goals | 3.5 | match total |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 |
|
8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 | D |
| 8 |
|
8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 | D |
| 9 |
|
8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 11 | L |
| 10 |
|
8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | No recent games |
| 11 |
|
8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 | D |
| 12 |
|
8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 | W |
No previous meetings on record.
Heerenveen vs Excelsior head to head
Our model gives SC Heerenveen a 50% chance to win, the draw 24% and SBV Excelsior 26%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at 69%.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 69%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%.
SC Heerenveen vs SBV Excelsior kicks off on Friday 16 October 2026 at 19:00 West Africa Time (18:00 UTC).
