Serie A WAT Matchday 6
Updated
Torino FC host Udinese Calcio in the Serie A on Monday 12 October at 19:45 WAT. Torino sit 12th on 7 points after 6 games, while Udinese are 15th on 4, 3 points behind. Recent form (newest first): Torino won 1 of the last 1, Udinese lost 1 of the last 1. The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 3.3 goals in total.
Our headline pick
Torino to win 40% · fair odds 2.48 Won
Torino FC 2-1 Udinese Calcio. It was 1-1 at half-time. 6 of our 6 market predictions landed (Torino to win, Both teams to score: Yes, Torino or Udinese, Over 1.5 goals, Over 2.5 goals, Under 3.5 goals). The headline pick, Torino to win, was correct. The final score was our number 2 most likely scoreline.
Torino to win
40% probability Fair odds 2.48
Our model rates Torino FC to win at 40%. Expected goals: Torino FC 1.66 – 1.60 Udinese Calcio (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings are close (1483 vs 1500). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Torino or Udinese
74% probability Fair odds 1.35
Our model rates Torino FC or Udinese Calcio at 74%. Expected goals: Torino FC 1.66 – 1.60 Udinese Calcio (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings are close (1483 vs 1500). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 1.5 goals
85% probability Fair odds 1.18
Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 85%. Expected goals: Torino FC 1.66 – 1.60 Udinese Calcio (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 2.5 goals
63% probability Fair odds 1.58
Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 63%. Expected goals: Torino FC 1.66 – 1.60 Udinese Calcio (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Under 3.5 goals
59% probability Fair odds 1.70
Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 59%. Expected goals: Torino FC 1.66 – 1.60 Udinese Calcio (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Both teams to score: Yes
66% probability Fair odds 1.53
Our model rates both teams scoring at 66%. Expected goals: Torino FC 1.66 – 1.60 Udinese Calcio (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
| Stat | Torino | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 15th |
| Points (played) | 7 (6) | 4 (6) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.17 |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W1 D0 L0 | Away: W0 D0 L1 |
| Model win probability | 40% | 34% |
| Model expected total goals | 3.3 | match total |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 |
|
6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 | W |
| 11 |
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | D |
| 12 |
|
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 | W |
| 13 |
|
6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 | L |
| 14 |
|
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 | W |
| 15 |
|
6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 | L |
| 16 |
|
6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 | L |
| 17 |
|
6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 | W |
No previous meetings on record.
Torino vs Udinese head to head
Torino FC 2-1 Udinese Calcio.
Our model gives Torino FC a 40% chance to win, the draw 26% and Udinese Calcio 34%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at 66%.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 63%.
Torino FC vs Udinese Calcio kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 19:45 West Africa Time (18:45 UTC).