Serie A WAT Matchday 6
Updated
Atalanta BC host Venezia FC in the Serie A on Monday 12 October at 17:30 WAT. Atalanta sit 10th on 9 points after 6 games, while Venezia FC are 20th on 0, 9 points behind. Recent form (newest first): Atalanta won 1 of the last 1, Venezia FC lost 1 of the last 1. The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 2.9 goals in total.
Our headline pick
Atalanta to win 64% · fair odds 1.57 Won
Atalanta BC 3-1 Venezia FC. It was 3-1 at half-time. 5 of our 6 market predictions landed (Atalanta to win, Both teams to score: Yes, Atalanta or draw, Over 1.5 goals, Over 2.5 goals). The headline pick, Atalanta to win, was correct. The final score was not among our three most likely scorelines (1-1, 2-0 and 2-1).
Atalanta to win
64% probability Fair odds 1.57
Our model rates Atalanta BC to win at 64%. Expected goals: Atalanta BC 1.94 – 0.97 Venezia FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Atalanta BC (1603 vs 1402). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Atalanta or draw
86% probability Fair odds 1.16
Our model rates Atalanta BC or draw at 86%. Expected goals: Atalanta BC 1.94 – 0.97 Venezia FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour Atalanta BC (1603 vs 1402). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 1.5 goals
79% probability Fair odds 1.26
Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 79%. Expected goals: Atalanta BC 1.94 – 0.97 Venezia FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 2.5 goals
55% probability Fair odds 1.80
Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 55%. Expected goals: Atalanta BC 1.94 – 0.97 Venezia FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Under 3.5 goals
67% probability Fair odds 1.49
Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 67%. Expected goals: Atalanta BC 1.94 – 0.97 Venezia FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Both teams to score: Yes
54% probability Fair odds 1.86
Our model rates both teams scoring at 54%. Expected goals: Atalanta BC 1.94 – 0.97 Venezia FC (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
| Stat | Atalanta | Venezia FC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 20th |
| Points (played) | 9 (6) | 0 (6) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.33 | 0.83 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.33 | 2.67 |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W1 D0 L0 | Away: W0 D0 L1 |
| Model win probability | 64% | 14% |
| Model expected total goals | 2.9 | match total |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 |
|
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 10 | W |
| 9 |
|
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 | L |
| 10 |
|
6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 | W |
| 11 |
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | D |
| 12 |
|
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 | W |
| 18 |
|
6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 | L |
| 19 |
|
6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 | L |
| 20 |
|
6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 | L |
No previous meetings on record.
Atalanta vs Venezia FC head to head
Atalanta BC 3-1 Venezia FC.
Our model gives Atalanta BC a 64% chance to win, the draw 22% and Venezia FC 14%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at 54%.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 55%.
Atalanta BC vs Venezia FC kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 17:30 West Africa Time (16:30 UTC).