Serie A WAT Matchday 30
Updated
CA Paranaense travel to face Chapecoense AF in the Serie A, kicking off Monday 12 October at 23:30 WAT. Chapecoense sit 20th on 18 points after 29 games, while Paranaense are 3rd on 53, 35 points ahead. Recent form (newest first): Chapecoense lost 1 of the last 1, Paranaense won 1 of the last 1. The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 3.4 goals in total.
Our headline pick
Paranaense to win 51% · fair odds 1.95 Won
Chapecoense AF 1-3 CA Paranaense. It was 0-3 at half-time. 5 of our 6 market predictions landed (Paranaense to win, Both teams to score: Yes, Chapecoense or Paranaense, Over 1.5 goals, Over 2.5 goals). The headline pick, Paranaense to win, was correct. The final score was not among our three most likely scorelines (1-1, 1-2 and 0-2).
Paranaense to win
51% probability Fair odds 1.95
Our model rates CA Paranaense to win at 51%. Expected goals: Chapecoense AF 1.34 – 2.09 CA Paranaense (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour CA Paranaense (1418 vs 1553). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Chapecoense or Paranaense
76% probability Fair odds 1.32
Our model rates Chapecoense AF or CA Paranaense at 76%. Expected goals: Chapecoense AF 1.34 – 2.09 CA Paranaense (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour CA Paranaense (1418 vs 1553). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 1.5 goals
86% probability Fair odds 1.16
Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 86%. Expected goals: Chapecoense AF 1.34 – 2.09 CA Paranaense (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 2.5 goals
67% probability Fair odds 1.50
Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 67%. Expected goals: Chapecoense AF 1.34 – 2.09 CA Paranaense (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Under 3.5 goals
55% probability Fair odds 1.81
Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 55%. Expected goals: Chapecoense AF 1.34 – 2.09 CA Paranaense (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Both teams to score: Yes
65% probability Fair odds 1.53
Our model rates both teams scoring at 65%. Expected goals: Chapecoense AF 1.34 – 2.09 CA Paranaense (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
| Stat | Chapecoense | Paranaense |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 20th | 3rd |
| Points (played) | 18 (29) | 53 (30) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.03 | 1.63 |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.17 |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W0 D0 L1 | Away: W1 D0 L0 |
| Model win probability | 25% | 51% |
| Model expected total goals | 3.4 | match total |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 | W |
| 2 |
|
30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 | W |
| 3 |
|
30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 | W |
| 4 |
|
30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 | L |
| 5 |
|
30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 | W |
| 18 |
|
30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 | D |
| 19 |
|
30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 | D |
| 20 |
|
29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 | L |
No previous meetings on record.
Chapecoense vs Paranaense head to head
Chapecoense AF 1-3 CA Paranaense.
Our model gives Chapecoense AF a 25% chance to win, the draw 24% and CA Paranaense 51%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at 65%.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 67%.
Chapecoense AF vs CA Paranaense kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 23:30 West Africa Time (22:30 UTC).