UEFA Champions League WAT Matchday 2
Updated
Liverpool FC travel to face LASK Linz in the UEFA Champions League, kicking off Wednesday 14 October at 17:45 WAT. Recent form (newest first): LASK lost 1 of the last 1, Liverpool lost 1 of the last 1. The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 3.0 goals in total.
Our headline pick
LASK to win 38% · fair odds 2.67 Lost
LASK Linz 3-6 Liverpool FC. It was 0-3 at half-time. 4 of our 6 market predictions landed (Both teams to score: Yes, LASK or Liverpool, Over 1.5 goals, Over 2.5 goals). The headline pick, LASK to win, did not land. The final score was not among our three most likely scorelines (1-1, 2-1 and 1-0).
LASK to win
38% probability Fair odds 2.67
Our model rates LASK Linz to win at 38%. Expected goals: LASK Linz 1.66 – 1.31 Liverpool FC (most likely score 1-1). Elo ratings favour Liverpool FC (1500 vs 1648). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models. Limited recent data for these teams lowers our confidence.
LASK or Liverpool
74% probability Fair odds 1.36
Our model rates LASK Linz or Liverpool FC at 74%. Expected goals: LASK Linz 1.66 – 1.31 Liverpool FC (most likely score 1-1). Elo ratings favour Liverpool FC (1500 vs 1648). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models. Limited recent data for these teams lowers our confidence.
Over 1.5 goals
80% probability Fair odds 1.24
Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 80%. Expected goals: LASK Linz 1.66 – 1.31 Liverpool FC (most likely score 1-1). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models. Limited recent data for these teams lowers our confidence.
Over 2.5 goals
57% probability Fair odds 1.76
Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 57%. Expected goals: LASK Linz 1.66 – 1.31 Liverpool FC (most likely score 1-1). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models. Limited recent data for these teams lowers our confidence.
Under 3.5 goals
66% probability Fair odds 1.53
Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 66%. Expected goals: LASK Linz 1.66 – 1.31 Liverpool FC (most likely score 1-1). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models. Limited recent data for these teams lowers our confidence.
Both teams to score: Yes
60% probability Fair odds 1.67
Our model rates both teams scoring at 60%. Expected goals: LASK Linz 1.66 – 1.31 Liverpool FC (most likely score 1-1). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models. Limited recent data for these teams lowers our confidence.
| Stat | LASK | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| League position | – | – |
| Points (played) | – | – |
| Goals scored per game | – | – |
| Goals conceded per game | – | – |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W0 D0 L1 | Away: W1 D0 L0 |
| Model win probability | 38% | 36% |
| Model expected total goals | 3.0 | match total |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
No previous meetings on record.
LASK vs Liverpool head to head
LASK Linz 3-6 Liverpool FC.
Our model gives LASK Linz a 38% chance to win, the draw 26% and Liverpool FC 36%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at 60%.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 57%.
LASK Linz vs Liverpool FC kicks off on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 17:45 West Africa Time (16:45 UTC).
