UEFA Champions League WAT Matchday 2
Updated
The UEFA Champions League meeting between Villarreal CF and SSC Napoli kicks off on Tuesday 13 October at 20:00 WAT. Recent form (newest first): Villarreal lost 1 of the last 1, Napoli won 1, lost 1 of the last 2. The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 2.7 goals in total.
Our headline pick
Villarreal to win 41% · fair odds 2.42 Won
Villarreal CF 3-1 SSC Napoli. It was 2-1 at half-time. 5 of our 6 market predictions landed (Villarreal to win, Both teams to score: Yes, Villarreal or Napoli, Over 1.5 goals, Over 2.5 goals). The headline pick, Villarreal to win, was correct. The final score was not among our three most likely scorelines (1-1, 1-0 and 2-1).
Villarreal to win
41% probability Fair odds 2.42
Our model rates Villarreal CF to win at 41%. Expected goals: Villarreal CF 1.50 – 1.20 SSC Napoli (most likely score 1-1). Elo ratings favour SSC Napoli (1606 vs 1658). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models. Limited recent data for these teams lowers our confidence.
Villarreal or Napoli
72% probability Fair odds 1.38
Our model rates Villarreal CF or SSC Napoli at 72%. Expected goals: Villarreal CF 1.50 – 1.20 SSC Napoli (most likely score 1-1). Elo ratings favour SSC Napoli (1606 vs 1658). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models. Limited recent data for these teams lowers our confidence.
Over 1.5 goals
76% probability Fair odds 1.31
Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 76%. Expected goals: Villarreal CF 1.50 – 1.20 SSC Napoli (most likely score 1-1). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models. Limited recent data for these teams lowers our confidence.
Over 2.5 goals
51% probability Fair odds 1.97
Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 51%. Expected goals: Villarreal CF 1.50 – 1.20 SSC Napoli (most likely score 1-1). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models. Limited recent data for these teams lowers our confidence.
Under 3.5 goals
71% probability Fair odds 1.40
Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 71%. Expected goals: Villarreal CF 1.50 – 1.20 SSC Napoli (most likely score 1-1). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models. Limited recent data for these teams lowers our confidence.
Both teams to score: Yes
55% probability Fair odds 1.81
Our model rates both teams scoring at 55%. Expected goals: Villarreal CF 1.50 – 1.20 SSC Napoli (most likely score 1-1). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models. Limited recent data for these teams lowers our confidence.
| Stat | Villarreal | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| League position | – | – |
| Points (played) | – | – |
| Goals scored per game | – | – |
| Goals conceded per game | – | – |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W1 D0 L0 | Away: W0 D0 L1 |
| Model win probability | 41% | 31% |
| Model expected total goals | 2.7 | match total |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
1 meetings · Napoli 0 wins, 0 draws, Villarreal 1 wins
Villarreal vs Napoli head to head
Villarreal CF 3-1 SSC Napoli.
Our model gives Villarreal CF a 41% chance to win, the draw 28% and SSC Napoli 31%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at 55%.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 51%.
Villarreal CF vs SSC Napoli kicks off on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time (19:00 UTC).
