UEFA Champions League WAT Matchday 2
Updated
The UEFA Champions League meeting between AS Roma and Real Madrid CF kicks off on Wednesday 14 October at 20:00 WAT. Recent form (newest first): Roma drew 1 of the last 1, Real Madrid won 1 of the last 1. The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 3.2 goals in total.
Our headline pick
Roma to win 42% · fair odds 2.39 Lost
AS Roma 3-4 Real Madrid CF. It was 1-1 at half-time. 4 of our 6 market predictions landed (Both teams to score: Yes, Roma or Real Madrid, Over 1.5 goals, Over 2.5 goals). The headline pick, Roma to win, did not land. The final score was not among our three most likely scorelines (1-1, 2-1 and 1-2).
Roma to win
42% probability Fair odds 2.39
Our model rates AS Roma to win at 42%. Expected goals: AS Roma 1.74 – 1.48 Real Madrid CF (most likely score 1-1). Elo ratings favour Real Madrid CF (1690 vs 1731). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models. Limited recent data for these teams lowers our confidence.
Roma or Real Madrid
74% probability Fair odds 1.35
Our model rates AS Roma or Real Madrid CF at 74%. Expected goals: AS Roma 1.74 – 1.48 Real Madrid CF (most likely score 1-1). Elo ratings favour Real Madrid CF (1690 vs 1731). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models. Limited recent data for these teams lowers our confidence.
Over 1.5 goals
84% probability Fair odds 1.19
Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 84%. Expected goals: AS Roma 1.74 – 1.48 Real Madrid CF (most likely score 1-1). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models. Limited recent data for these teams lowers our confidence.
Over 2.5 goals
63% probability Fair odds 1.60
Our model rates over 2.5 goals at 63%. Expected goals: AS Roma 1.74 – 1.48 Real Madrid CF (most likely score 1-1). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models. Limited recent data for these teams lowers our confidence.
Under 3.5 goals
60% probability Fair odds 1.68
Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 60%. Expected goals: AS Roma 1.74 – 1.48 Real Madrid CF (most likely score 1-1). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models. Limited recent data for these teams lowers our confidence.
Both teams to score: Yes
65% probability Fair odds 1.55
Our model rates both teams scoring at 65%. Expected goals: AS Roma 1.74 – 1.48 Real Madrid CF (most likely score 1-1). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models. Limited recent data for these teams lowers our confidence.
| Stat | Roma | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| League position | – | – |
| Points (played) | – | – |
| Goals scored per game | – | – |
| Goals conceded per game | – | – |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W0 D0 L1 | Away: W1 D0 L0 |
| Model win probability | 42% | 32% |
| Model expected total goals | 3.2 | match total |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
No previous meetings on record.
Roma vs Real Madrid head to head
AS Roma 3-4 Real Madrid CF.
Our model gives AS Roma a 42% chance to win, the draw 26% and Real Madrid CF 32%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at 65%.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 63%.
AS Roma vs Real Madrid CF kicks off on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 20:00 West Africa Time (19:00 UTC).
