Serie A WAT Matchday 31
Updated
CR Flamengo travel to face EC Bahia in the Serie A, kicking off Sunday 18 October at 22:30 WAT. Bahia sit 5th on 49 points after 30 games, while Flamengo are 1st on 64, 15 points ahead. Recent form (newest first): Bahia won 1 of the last 1, Flamengo won 1 of the last 1. The selection our model rates most informative here is Draw or Flamengo (74%). The over/under 2.5 probabilities imply roughly 2.4 goals in total.
Our headline pick
Draw or Flamengo 74% · fair odds 1.35
Flamengo to win
46% probability Fair odds 2.19
Our model rates CR Flamengo to win at 46%. Expected goals: EC Bahia 1.14 – 1.31 CR Flamengo (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour CR Flamengo (1560 vs 1702). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
over
92% probability Fair odds 1.08
Our model rates over 0.5 goals at 92%. Expected goals: EC Bahia 1.14 – 1.31 CR Flamengo (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
under
88% probability Fair odds 1.13
Our model rates under 4.5 goals at 88%. Expected goals: EC Bahia 1.14 – 1.31 CR Flamengo (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Draw or Flamengo
74% probability Fair odds 1.35
Our model rates CR Flamengo or draw at 74%. Expected goals: EC Bahia 1.14 – 1.31 CR Flamengo (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. Elo ratings favour CR Flamengo (1560 vs 1702). No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Over 1.5 goals
74% probability Fair odds 1.35
Our model rates over 1.5 goals at 74%. Expected goals: EC Bahia 1.14 – 1.31 CR Flamengo (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Under 2.5 goals
56% probability Fair odds 1.79
Our model rates under 2.5 goals at 56%. Expected goals: EC Bahia 1.14 – 1.31 CR Flamengo (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Under 3.5 goals
75% probability Fair odds 1.33
Our model rates under 3.5 goals at 75%. Expected goals: EC Bahia 1.14 – 1.31 CR Flamengo (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Both teams to score: Yes
53% probability Fair odds 1.89
Our model rates both teams scoring at 53%. Expected goals: EC Bahia 1.14 – 1.31 CR Flamengo (most likely score 1-1). Recent form adjusts the goal expectations slightly. No market view was available, so the estimate relies on our goals and rating models.
Our model's headline view on Bahia vs Flamengo is Draw or Flamengo at an estimated 74%, which converts to fair odds of 1.35. Compare that with the price on offer before deciding anything.
| Stat | Bahia | Flamengo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 1st |
| Points (played) | 49 (30) | 64 (30) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.47 | 1.93 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.83 |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W1 D0 L0 | – |
| Model win probability | 26% | 46% |
| Model expected total goals | 2.4 | match total |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 | W |
| 2 |
|
30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 | W |
| 3 |
|
30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 | W |
| 4 |
|
30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 | L |
| 5 |
|
30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 | W |
| 6 |
|
30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 | L |
| 7 |
|
30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 | W |
No previous meetings on record.
Bahia vs Flamengo head to head
Our model gives EC Bahia a 26% chance to win, the draw 29% and CR Flamengo 46%. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at 53%.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of 44%.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%.
EC Bahia vs CR Flamengo kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 22:30 West Africa Time (21:30 UTC).
