Match result
LostMilan to win
50% probability Fair odds 2.00
Serie A WAT
Updated
AC Milan travel to face US Sassuolo Calcio in the Serie A, kicking off Sunday 11 October at 17:00 WAT. Sassuolo sit 11th on 8 points after 6 games, while Milan are 5th on 12, 4 points ahead. Recent form (newest first): Sassuolo drew 1 of the last 1, Milan drew 1 of the last 1.
Our headline pick
Milan to win 50% · fair odds 2 Lost
US Sassuolo Calcio 1-1 AC Milan. 4 of our 6 market predictions landed (Both teams to score: Yes, Draw or Milan, Over 1.5 goals, Under 3.5 goals). The headline pick, Milan to win, did not land. The final score was not among our three most likely scorelines ().
Milan to win
50% probability Fair odds 2.00
Draw or Milan
75% probability Fair odds 1.33
Over 1.5 goals
83% probability Fair odds 1.21
Over 2.5 goals
60% probability Fair odds 1.66
Under 3.5 goals
62% probability Fair odds 1.61
Both teams to score: Yes
61% probability Fair odds 1.63
| Stat | Sassuolo | Milan |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 5th |
| Points (played) | 8 (6) | 12 (6) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.67 | 1.83 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.83 |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W0 D1 L0 | Away: W0 D1 L0 |
| Model win probability | – | – |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |
|
6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +11 | 14 | D |
| 4 |
|
6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 13 | D |
| 5 |
|
6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 12 | D |
| 6 |
|
6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +4 | 11 | D |
| 7 |
|
6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 11 | D |
| 9 |
|
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 | L |
| 10 |
|
6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 | W |
| 11 |
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | D |
| 12 |
|
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 | W |
| 13 |
|
6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 | L |
No previous meetings on record.
Sassuolo vs Milan head to head
US Sassuolo Calcio 1-1 AC Milan.
Our model gives US Sassuolo Calcio a – chance to win, the draw – and AC Milan –. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at –.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of –.
US Sassuolo Calcio vs AC Milan kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 17:00 West Africa Time (16:00 UTC).