Match result
LostExcelsior to win
50% probability Fair odds 2.01
Eredivisie WAT
Updated
SBV Excelsior host FC Groningen in the Eredivisie on Sunday 11 October at 15:45 WAT. Excelsior sit 9th on 11 points after 8 games, while Groningen are 6th on 14, 3 points ahead. Recent form (newest first): Excelsior lost 1 of the last 1, Groningen won 1 of the last 1.
Our headline pick
Excelsior to win 50% · fair odds 2.01 Lost
SBV Excelsior 1-5 FC Groningen. 5 of our 6 market predictions landed (Both teams to score: Yes, Excelsior or Groningen, Over 1.5 goals, Over 2.5 goals, Over 3.5 goals). The headline pick, Excelsior to win, did not land. The final score was not among our three most likely scorelines ().
Excelsior to win
50% probability Fair odds 2.01
Excelsior or Groningen
77% probability Fair odds 1.30
Over 1.5 goals
91% probability Fair odds 1.10
Over 2.5 goals
75% probability Fair odds 1.34
Over 3.5 goals
55% probability Fair odds 1.83
Both teams to score: Yes
72% probability Fair odds 1.39
| Stat | Excelsior | Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 6th |
| Points (played) | 11 (8) | 14 (8) |
| Goals scored per game | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| Goals conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W0 D0 L1 | Away: W1 D0 L0 |
| Model win probability | – | – |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 |
|
8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 17 | D |
| 5 |
|
8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 15 | D |
| 6 |
|
8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 | W |
| 7 |
|
8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 | D |
| 8 |
|
8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 | D |
| 9 |
|
8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 11 | L |
| 10 |
|
8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | No recent games |
| 11 |
|
8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 | D |
No previous meetings on record.
Excelsior vs Groningen head to head
SBV Excelsior 1-5 FC Groningen.
Our model gives SBV Excelsior a – chance to win, the draw – and FC Groningen –. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at –.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of –.
SBV Excelsior vs FC Groningen kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:45 West Africa Time (14:45 UTC).