Match result
WonRio Ave FC to win
44% probability Fair odds 2.26
Primeira Liga WAT
Updated
CD Nacional travel to face Rio Ave FC in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Sunday 11 October at 15:30 WAT. Rio Ave FC sit 14th on 7 points after 8 games, while CD Nacional are 16th on 4, 3 points behind. Recent form (newest first): Rio Ave FC won 1 of the last 1, CD Nacional lost 1 of the last 1.
Our headline pick
Rio Ave FC to win 44% · fair odds 2.26 Won
Rio Ave FC 3-2 CD Nacional. 5 of our 6 market predictions landed (Rio Ave FC to win, Both teams to score: Yes, Rio Ave FC or CD Nacional, Over 1.5 goals, Over 2.5 goals). The headline pick, Rio Ave FC to win, was correct. The final score was not among our three most likely scorelines ().
Rio Ave FC to win
44% probability Fair odds 2.26
Rio Ave FC or CD Nacional
74% probability Fair odds 1.36
Over 1.5 goals
81% probability Fair odds 1.24
Over 2.5 goals
57% probability Fair odds 1.74
Under 3.5 goals
65% probability Fair odds 1.54
Both teams to score: Yes
61% probability Fair odds 1.65
| Stat | Rio Ave FC | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 16th |
| Points (played) | 7 (8) | 4 (8) |
| Goals scored per game | 1.00 | 1.13 |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.13 | 2.25 |
| Home / away record (recent) | Home: W1 D0 L0 | Away: W0 D0 L1 |
| Model win probability | – | – |
Probabilities come from our own model, which blends a goals model, team ratings and market prices. How we calculated this.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 |
|
8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 | No recent games |
| 13 |
|
8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 | L |
| 14 |
|
8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 | W |
| 15 |
|
8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 5 | L |
| 16 |
|
8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 | L |
| 17 |
|
8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 | L |
| 18 |
|
8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 2 | L |
No previous meetings on record.
Rio Ave FC vs CD Nacional head to head
Rio Ave FC 3-2 CD Nacional.
Our model gives Rio Ave FC a – chance to win, the draw – and CD Nacional –. Predictions are not guarantees.
Our model puts both teams scoring at –.
Three or more goals has an estimated probability of –.
Rio Ave FC vs CD Nacional kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:30 West Africa Time (14:30 UTC).